Probably Stolen guide: Water Merchant Startup

A shop full of merchandise means little if you cannot cover rent or afford your next income-producing machine. This Probably Stolen guide focuses on a water merchant opening that turns limited starting resources into repeatable water sales. Follow this Probably Stolen guide to prioritize three working purifiers, preserve your cash, and avoid purchases that delay your first reliable production loop.

The approach below is based on player experience, primarily the community video How to Start a Water Empire in Probably Stolen. Its target is three powered purifiers within roughly 8–14 in-game days, not a guaranteed deadline. Merchant visits, inventory availability, and temporary events can change your schedule.

1. Choose a Water Merchant Setup That Supports Production

The water merchant opening works by converting an available resource—rust water—into something customers will purchase. Your early advantage comes from investing in production rather than tying up your credits in unrelated inventory.

Official screenshot · Source: Steam store

For this Probably Stolen guide, the recommended setup follows the demonstrated player run:

These are player-experience recommendations, not proof that every other combination is weaker. Bad Lease particularly deserves attention: extra starting money is useful only if you keep enough cash available for the higher rent.

Set a narrow opening goal

Before browsing deals, establish your priorities:

• Keep enough money for rent.
• Obtain three water purifiers.
• Supply each machine with a battery and a filled bottle.
• Maintain enough containers to collect and sell the output.
• Protect your equipment as the run progresses.

The important distinction is working equipment versus owned equipment. A purifier sitting without power or water does not advance the plan.

2. Turn Your Starting Water Into Your First Sales

Your first task is to make the starting water sellable. According to the source player’s experience, customers begin purchasing water at base quality or better. High-quality water becomes the early production target; pure water is a later ambition.

Use the starting HydroTech purifier carefully rather than spending its charges without a plan.

Prepare and display your initial stock

The demonstrated opening follows this sequence:

1. Use the HydroTech purifier on the starting jug to produce base water.
2. Separate 1,500 ml from the large bottle into another bottle.
3. Use the remaining HydroTech charges to bring that portion to base quality.
4. Put the base-water jug in the display case.
5. Sell as much water as practical to the first suitable customer.

The video also uses a water neon sign, but reports that the displayed jug is sufficient to attract water buyers. Do not treat the sign as a required early investment.

Buy useful containers, not miscellaneous stock

This Probably Stolen guide recommends resisting general wholesale purchases, but bottles are a practical exception. The source player buys customer bottles because the opening depends on having enough containers available.

There is also a trade-off: the demonstrated strategy transfers the bottle maker’s battery into the first purifier. That makes buying bottles especially useful while your power resources support water production instead.

As you sell through base water, reuse the freed containers for high-quality stock. Keep those qualities separate so you do not accidentally combine your remaining starter supply with your improved output.

3. Follow a Flexible First-Two-Weeks Plan

The opening is best treated as a series of milestones rather than a rigid calendar. The source run receives helpful offers early, but your customers and shop stock may arrive in a different order.

Get the first purifier running immediately

In the demonstrated run, Jackson has a purifier after the first day. Treat that as an opportunity to check, not a promise that every run will match.

Once you obtain one:

1. Transfer the battery from the bottle maker.
2. Fill a standard bottle with rust water from the faucet.
3. Put that bottle into the purifier.
4. Allow the machine to process it overnight.

The source reports that this produces a standard bottle of high-quality water each night.

Check both equipment sources

Continue visiting Jackson after closing while you are still expanding. His purifier stock is inconsistent. The video estimates availability at roughly 20–25% per visit, but that is a player estimate, not a verified drop rate.

The visiting water merchant is the other key opportunity. In the source player’s experience, that merchant carries a purifier. Keep credits available so a useful visit does not become a missed purchase.

Let events change your timing

A power shortage in the example run raises battery prices enough that the player delays buying one. The lesson is not to follow a calendar blindly.

If an inflated battery purchase would endanger rent, waiting may be safer. This Probably Stolen guide prioritizes a sustainable business over hitting a specific day count.

Likewise, the source recommends leaving Odin Haraldson alone when he appears early, describing him as useful later. That is player-experience advice; the available material does not explain the later interaction in detail.

4. Manage Cash, Discounted Modules, and Daily Production

The hardest part of this opening is often holding onto money when other purchases look attractive. A good deal can still be poorly timed if it prevents you from buying a purifier.

Use discounted modules selectively

In the source run, Jackson offers three modules at a friend discount. Reselling selected modules brings in 160 credits in that example, helping finance expansion.

However, the transcript contradicts itself about which module to save: it first mentions efficiency, then later explicitly keeps performance for the security system. The practical takeaway is to inspect the relevant module and security requirements before selling anything you may need.

The video sells modules to a low-level inventor. Displaying modules is a useful tactic from that run, but it should not be interpreted as a guaranteed immediate sale.

Repeat the production loop every morning

Once the machines are operating, this Probably Stolen guide becomes a routine:

• Remove the finished high-quality water.
• Transfer it into containers reserved for that quality.
• Refill the empty production bottles with rust water.
• Return a filled bottle to every powered purifier.
• Display sellable water and serve buyers.
• Review rent money before making purchases.

For faster refilling, the source demonstrates drag-selecting multiple bottles. Start the selection outside their item boxes, draw across the bottles, then drag the selected group to the rust-water faucet.

Understand the revenue target

The demonstrated sales value is 50 credits per standard bottle of high-quality water at the run’s settings.

That 150-credit figure is gross revenue, not net profit. It assumes all three machines complete their cycles and the resulting water sells at the reported price. Rent, insurance, equipment purchases, and other expenses still affect your available cash.

5. Protect the Shop Before Expanding Further

Three purifiers create a useful income base, but losing equipment can undo several days of progress. The source player recommends purchasing insurance from day four onward while building toward a security system.

Their next suggested upgrade is a security system with 49 performance, intended to remove the need for repeated insurance purchases. Treat that threshold as player experience and check your current game’s equipment details before relying on it.

This Probably Stolen guide puts protection ahead of speculative expansion because production equipment is now the foundation of your income.

Consider appraisal income without sacrificing essentials

The source also recommends joining the appraisal board when the offer appears. The player describes selling an extra magnifying glass to the black-suited buyer and using the appraisal-related display option to generate additional income.

The reference does not provide enough cost detail to calculate a reliable return. Treat appraisal as a secondary opportunity after checking rent, purifier funding, batteries, and insurance.

For other business paths, the Probably Stolen Steam Community guides hub lists player-written resources covering water trading, chemistry, machinery, and winemaking. Check version notes carefully; community strategies may reflect different builds.

6. Probably Stolen Guide FAQ

What should beginners prioritize in this Probably Stolen guide?

Prioritize sellable starting water, rent money, and your first powered purifier. Then work toward three operating machines before buying unrelated wholesale inventory. Bottles, batteries, and protection are supporting necessities, not distractions from that goal.

How quickly can I get three water purifiers?

The source player targets approximately 8–14 in-game days. Your timing depends on available credits, Jackson’s stock, the visiting water merchant, and events affecting battery prices. Use the window as a planning target rather than a deadline.

Can three purifiers earn 150 credits per day?

Based on the demonstrated player experience, three purifiers can produce three standard bottles per overnight cycle, with each selling for 50 credits. That creates 150 credits in potential gross daily sales, provided production runs uninterrupted and customers buy the output.

Should I pursue pure water immediately?

No. The opening strategy uses base water for initial sales, then shifts toward high-quality water from powered purifiers. Establish that repeatable income first. Once rent, protection, and production are stable, you can choose your next upgrade without putting the entire shop at risk.